THE RUSSIAN BLUFF: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (March 27, 2007)

According to you, “Kosovo is heading for independence whatever the Russians say or do” (“Veto Threats,” March 24, 2007). Up to a point, I agree. If Russia blocks the new resolution by the United Nations, ushering the transfer of control to the European Union, Kosovo will declare independence anyway. In all likelihood, the United States will recognize it at once, followed by many Muslim countries. Perhaps a few EU countries would recognize it soon afterwards, too. So far, so good. But does it follow, as you argue, that the choice is between “controlled” and “uncontrolled” independence? I rather doubt it. The real choice is between “EU-controlled” and “US-controlled” independence of Kosovo. To wit, the Russians would be quite daft to block the new UN resolution. In my opinion, they are angling for a little something from the EU, but they would be unlikely to go all the way with their bluff.